The confusing Popperian ‘Oedipus effect’ on Social Sciences predictions
Óscar Peláez-Herreros
ABSTRACT
Popper argues that it is impossible to make accurate and detailed predictions in the Social Sciences and calls the ‘Oedipus effect’ the idea that a prediction can influence the predicted event, both in the sense of favoring and preventing it from happening. However, after reviewing the problems of predictions in the Social Sciences and defining and distinguishing self-fulfilling prophecies and self-defeating predictions, we note important discrepancies between Popper’s approach and the Oedipus myth. Specifically, we find that the Oedipus story, at best, partially corresponds to self-fulfilling prophecies and is opposed to self-defeating ones. More precisely, we note that the oracle generated a defeating reaction that, however, led to its fulfillment. Contrary to Popper's argument, the prophecies of the Oedipus story are accurate. To understand this lack of association between the phenomenon described and the term Popper assigns it, we explored the reasons that guided his choice, finding that he preferred to make a specific allusion to the practices of psychoanalysts at the expense of the precision of the term.
Keywords: historicism; self-fulfilling prophecy; self-defeating prediction; Sophocles; psychoanalysts
Received: February 12, 2022; Accepted: March 01, 2022
Keywords:
References: BIBLIOGRAFÍA
Álvarez, M. C. (1974). El Edipo de Séneca y sus precedentes. Cuadernos de Filología Clásica, (7), 181-239. https://cutt.ly/7VpJD9e [ Links ]
Boyer, A. (2009). Open rationality: making guesses about nature, society and justice. En Z. Parusniková y R. S. Cohen (Eds.), Rethinking Popper (pp. 245-255). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9338-8_19 [ Links ]
Budge, I. (1973). The scientific status of political science: a comment on self-fulfilling and self-defeating predictions. British Journal of Political Science, 3(2), 249-250. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400007821 [ Links ]
Freud, S. (2009). Observaciones sobre la teoría y la práctica de la interpretación de los sueños. Planeta Freud. https://cutt.ly/NVpJ75I [ Links ]
Freud, S. (2013). La interpretación de los sueños. Akal. [ Links ]
Fusfeld, D. R. (1987). Methodenstreit. En J. Eatwell, M. Milgate y P. Newman (Eds.), The new palgrave: a dictionary of economics (vol. 3, pp. 454-455). Macmillan. [ Links ]
González, W. J. (2017). Estudio bibliográfico de Karl Popper: contribuciones filosóficas enmarcadas en cuatro etapas. Ápeiron. Estudios de Filosofía, (6), 9-55. https://cutt.ly/PVpKl3m [ Links ]
Hayek, F. A. (1942). Scientism and the study of society. Economica, 9(35), 267-291. https://doi.org/10.2307/2549540 [ Links ]
Hayek, F. A. (1943). Scientism and the study of society, part II. Economica, 10(37), 34-63. https://doi.org/10.2307/2549653 [ Links ]
Hayek, F. A. (1944). Scientism and the study of society, part III. Economica, 11(41), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.2307/2549942 [ Links ]
Hayek, F. A. (1964). The theory of complex phenomena. En M. A. Bunge (Ed.), The critical approach to science and philosophy: essays in honor of Karl R. Popper (pp. 332-349). The Free. [ Links ]
Henshel, R. L. (1993). Do self-fulfilling prophecies improve or degrade predictive accuracy? How Sociology and Economics can disagree and both be right. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 22(2), 85-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/1053-5357(93)90017-F [ Links ]
Lasso, J. S. (1981). Introducción general. En Sófocles, Tragedias (pp. 7-112). Gredos. [ Links ]
Martínez, J. F. (2017). Popper y Hayek sobre predicción y explicación en las Ciencias Sociales. Ápeiron. Estudios de Filosofía, (6), 145-164. https://cutt.ly/jVpKOTg [ Links ]
Marx, K. (1979). Miseria de la filosofía: respuesta a la filosofía de la miseria de Proudhon. Siglo XXI. [ Links ]
McCloskey, D. N. (1993). Si eres tan listo. La narrativa de los expertos en economía. Alianza. [ Links ]
Menger, C. (1884). Die irrthümer des historismus in der deutschen nationalökonomie. Hölder. [ Links ]
Merton, R. K. (1936). The unanticipated consequences of purposive social action. American Sociological Review, 1(6), 894-904. https://doi.org/10.2307/2084615 [ Links ]
Merton, R. K. (1948). The self-fulfilling prophecy. The Antioch Review, 8(2), 193-210. https://doi.org/10.2307/4609267 [ Links ]
Oliveira, M. B. (1999). Popper e o ‘efeito Édipo’. Trans/Form/Ação, 21-22(1), 33-42. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-31731999000100005 [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1944a). The poverty of historicism, I. Economica, 11(42), 86-103. https://doi.org/10.2307/2549642 [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1944b). The poverty of historicism, II. A criticism of historicist methods. Economica, 11(43), 119-137. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550285 [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1945). The poverty of historicism, III. Economica, 12(46), 69-89. https://doi.org/10.2307/2549898 [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1950a). Indeterminism in quantum physics and in classical physics. Part I. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 1(2), 117-133. https://cutt.ly/RVpK4VK [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1950b). Indeterminism in quantum physics and in classical physics. Part II. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 1(3), 173-195. https://cutt.ly/GVpK61l [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1973). La miseria del historicismo. Taurus. [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (1983). Conjeturas y refutaciones. El desarrollo del conocimiento científico. Paidós. [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (2002). Unended quest: an intellectual autobiography. Routledge. [ Links ]
Popper, K. R. (2006). La sociedad abierta y sus enemigos. Paidós. [ Links ]
Proudhon, P. J. (1870). Sistema de las contradicciones económicas ó filosofía de la miseria. Alfonso Durán. [ Links ]
Santiago, R. A. (1985). Algunas observaciones sobre el mito de Edipo antes de los trágicos. Habis, (16), 43-66. https://cutt.ly/GVpLymV [ Links ]
Schopenhauer, A. (2016). Parerga y paralipómena II. (P. López de Santa María, Trad.). ePublibre. https://cutt.ly/mVpLYWM [ Links ]
Sófocles (1981). Edipo rey. En Sófocles, Tragedias (pp. 301-368). Gredos. [ Links ]
Wegner, D. M., Schneider, D. J., Carter, S. R. y White, T. L. (1987). Paradoxical effects of thought suppression. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53(1), 5-13. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.53.1.5 [ Links ]
Zizek, S. (2003). El sublime objeto de la ideología. Siglo XXI [ Links ]
1Martínez (2017) advierte que Popper emplea el término ‘historicismo’ en un sentido distinto al de la mayoría de los autores.
2Merton (1936) ya había mencionado estos motivos. No obstante, según Martínez (2017, p. 150, p. 157), Popper toma de Hayek (1942, 1943 y 1944) la idea de la complejidad del objeto estudiado, que también puede encontrarse en Hayek (1964).
3La traducción es mía. El texto en inglés dice: “One of the ideas I had discussed in The Poverty was the influence of a prediction upon the event predicted. I had called this the ‘Oedipus effect’, because the oracle played a most important role in the sequence of events which led to the fulfilment of its prophecy”.
4Henshel (1993, p. 91) menciona varios temas adicionales afectados por profecías que se autorrealizan.
5En algunas versiones no es Zeus, sino Preto, hermano de Acrisio, el que embaraza a Dánae.
6La traducción es mía. El texto en inglés dice: “It was also an allusion to the psychoanalysts, who had been strangely blind to this interesting fact, even though Freud himself admitted that the very dreams dreamt by patients were often coloured by the theories of their analysts; Freud called them ‘obliging dreams’”.
Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative Commons
